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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.